El Niño Forecast Information
El Niño is strengthening with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-2027. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 69% chance that the current El Niño event will exceed the strength of all previous events on record in data going back to 1950.
NOAA's August forecast has the median Niño-3.4 anomaly (Niño-3.4 is a specific patch of ocean in the tropical Pacific, roughly between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W–120°W longitude. NOAA uses this area as one of the primary gauges of El Niño and La Niña.) reaching about +2.66°C in October to December, with a 95th-percentile forecast of +3.37°C. For November to January, the median is +2.58°C.
National Weather Service El Niño Forecast Information
